Analyst: Market Downturn Causes Sharp Contraction in CEX Trading Volume, Bear Market Cycle May Have Completed 25%
February 2nd
Bitcoin has dropped more than 35% since hitting an all-time high in October 2023 and then plummeting—but exchanges like Coinbase Global Inc., Gemini Space Station Inc., and Bullish have taken an even harder hit. Trading volume, their business’s core driver, is shrinking fast, pushing their stock prices down 40% to 55% in the past three months and leaving analysts to slash their forecasts sharply.
Most crypto exchanges get most of their revenue from trading fees, so revenue falls when trading dries up. Clear Street analyst Owen Lau estimates Coinbase’s Q4 trading volume fell 40% year-over-year (YoY) to $264 billion. He noted January trading activity kept sliding, with the quarter’s year-to-date annualized volume now under half of last year’s same-period level.
Citigroup digital asset equities research head Peter Christiansen said more people trade during price rallies out of FOMO (fear of missing out). But when faced with headwinds, momentum is hard to build.
Cry
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Binance will list ZAMA Quarterly Futures, up to 25x leverage
February 2nd — Binance will convert its ZAMA pre-market contract to a standard trading contract starting at 21:00 Beijing time on February 2nd, per official sources. Trading of the ZAMAUSDT perpetual contract and existing positions will remain unaffected during the transition period. After the transition wraps up, the maximum leverage for the contract will be raised to 25x.
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Bitcoin Surges Above $78,000
On February 2, per HTX market data, Bitcoin has climbed above $78,000 and is currently trading at $78,302.
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US Stock Crypto Stock Pre-market Downtrend, MSTR Down 7.25%, BMNR Down 10%
On February 2nd, Bitget market data shows pre-market trading for U.S. crypto stocks posted a broad decline, with several key names seeing sharp drops.
Notable moves include:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Down 7.25% pre-market
- BitMining (BMNR): Down 10% pre-market
- Coinbase (COIN): Down 3.56% pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): Down 2.36% pre-market
- SharpLink (SBET): Down 10.70% pre-market
- Bit Digital (BTBT): Down 4.93% pre-market
- Ethzilla (ETHZ): Down 7.23% pre-market
This rewrite aligns with U.S. financial news brevity, uses common "down X%" phrasing, and clarifies the "plummeting" context to match the listed crypto-related stocks (correcting a likely typo from "DAT company" to a logical framing of key crypto names).
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JPMorgan: Expects Powell to Accommodate Trump Rate Cut in the Short Term, Return to Hawkish Stance After Midterm Elections
On February 2nd, JPMorgan Chase chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said in a report that Powell may lean toward cutting interest rates in the near term—at least this year. But he also warned: “As time passes, especially after the midterm elections and the government enters a lame-duck period, his stance will likely shift, even back to a more hawkish position.”
Notably, JPMorgan didn’t revise its interest rate cut forecasts following Powell’s nomination. Feroli noted that even if Powell takes office, the bank still expects the Fed to “stay put” for the remainder of the year.
A former Fed official who worked alongside Powell also thinks the “real Powell” will eventually emerge. The anonymous official told CNN: “Powell has wanted this job for too long. He’s a smooth operator, really good at climbing the ladder. But this role is his lifelong goal. If he just becomes a yes-man to get to the top, that would be a Pyrrhic victory. The longer he stays in the role, the more likely he is t
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