55 Years of Data Reveals Gold Bull Market Path: Historical Pullback Revisited, Structural Support Still in Place

On February 4, gold rebounded sharply after plunging 10% last week, sparking debate in markets over whether the bull market has ended. Analysts say the downturn is more likely a short-term pullback within the bull run, not a trend reversal. Analysts note gold is now in its third major bull market since 1971. Historically, the two prior cycles (1971–1980 and 2001–2011) saw multiple deep 10%–20% retracements that didn’t break the long-term uptrend. The current bull run has also had several corrections, with volatility ongoing. A key difference this time: central banks’ steady, large-scale gold buying has added stronger structural support to the cycle. Data shows global central banks’ net gold purchases hit 328 tons in 2025. Some institutions say while gold is somewhat overvalued relative to models, it’s not in a bubble yet. UBS says gold bull markets typically end only when central banks regain strong credibility and monetary policy regimes shift fundamentally. Amid doubts about the Fed’s independence, ongoing geopolitical tensions and debt pressures, gold remains in the mid-to-late stages of its bull run. A sharp pullback could be viewed by markets as a buying opportunity.