The current Fed rate cut probability for March is 12%, and the probability of rate hold until April is 75.2%.

As of February 5, CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates the following rate policy odds **ahead of tonight’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims release (21:30 UTC+8)**: - 12% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the March meeting; 88% odds rates remain unchanged. - For policy through April: 75.2% odds of no rate adjustments; 23% odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut; 1.7% odds of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has its next two meetings scheduled for March 18 and April 29. ### Notes on U.S. style adaptation: 1. Used **"odds"** (common in market data/quick takes) instead of repeated "probability"; 2. Tightened phrasing for brevity (e.g., "ahead of" instead of "before the release of"; "remain unchanged" for flow); 3. Added **parenthetical FOMC full name** (standard for first reference in U.S. business/finance content); 4. Structured with bullet points (standard for clear, scannable market briefs); 5. Kept time zone notation concise (matches U.S. financial newswire conventions).