Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders are on the Verge of Structural Surrender, or Approaching Bear Market 'Last Dip'
On February 6, on-chain data analyst Murphy tweeted that as of February 5, several key long-term holder (LTH) metrics had neared critical thresholds: Both the 7-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (LTH-RPRL) and LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) had dropped to 1. This signals long-term holders are overall no longer profitable and on the cusp of structural capitulation.
Meanwhile, large volumes of long-term, loss-making tokens have flowed onto exchanges—hinting the market may be approaching the "straw that breaks the camel's back" moment. Historically, when LTHs capitulate en masse, it often coincides with the most volatile price swings in each bear market cycle, marking the darkest hour before the dawn.
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Over 570k Liquidated! Total 24h Liquidations Reach $2.597 Billion
On Feb. 6, Coinglass data shows total network liquidations over the past 24 hours surged to $2.597 billion. Long position liquidations accounted for $2.129 billion, while short position liquidations hit $467 million.
Globally, 577,179 traders were liquidated. The largest single liquidation order was a $12.0209 million BTCUSDT trade on Binance.
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Greeks.live: Bitcoin and Ethereum Sharp Downtrend Continues, Put Options Hold Absolute Dominance
On Feb 6, analytics platform Greeks.live shared key crypto options expiration data in a social media post:
- 33,000 BTC options expiring; put-call ratio (PCR) 0.54; max pain $80,000; nominal value $2.1B
- 219,000 ETH options expiring; PCR 0.91; max pain $2,400; nominal value $420M
Crypto markets plunged sharply that day: BTC briefly fell below $60k, while ETH dropped under $1,750. Roughly 10% of total options open interest expired, totaling nearly $26B. BTC and ETH prices extended losses with a strong downtrend, as put options dominated trading. The crypto fear gauge hit 5% at one point, sparking fresh market panic.
Implied volatility (IV) for both assets surged to over 1-year highs:
- BTC’s main-term IV topped 60%, with short-term at-the-money (ATM) contracts exceeding 110%
- ETH’s main-term IV stood at 80%, with short-term ATM contracts above 120%
This week, put options held a large share of trading volume. Market makers absorbed a wave of bearish demand, and trading
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Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Falling to $55,000 This Year" Rises to 74%
On February 6, probabilities on Polymarket for Bitcoin’s price moves this year stand at:
- 74% for dropping to $55,000
- 61% for falling to $50,000
- 43% for rising to $100,000
- 34% for hitting $110,000
This rewrite uses concise, direct language typical of U.S. financial quick updates: it omits redundant phrasing (e.g., "the probability of the prediction"), uses action verbs ("dropping/falling/hitting") for clarity, and structures data in scannable bullet points—common in American financial media. Dates follow U.S. formatting (month-day), and "stand at" is a natural phrase for current market metrics.
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Benson Sun: Bitcoin Plunges to Rare -5.65σ, Only Seen 4 Times in History
**Crypto Influencer & Ex-FTX Partner: Bitcoin’s -5.65σ Drop Nears “Industrial-Level Impossible”**
On February 6, Benson Sun—crypto KOL and former FTX Community Partner—posted that Bitcoin (BTC) saw an extreme downswing this morning. Calculated over a 200-day lookback period, BTC’s decline hit **-5.65 standard deviations (σ)**.
In manufacturing, the Six Sigma standard allows just 3.4 defects per million occurrences, defined as “almost impossible” in human industrial civilization. Yesterday’s BTC volatility was only 0.35σ away from this “industrial-level impossibility.” A -5.65σ event has a theoretical normal distribution probability of roughly 1 in 1 billion.
While financial markets have “fat tails” (extreme events more likely than normal distribution predicts), BTC has only seen this level of volatility **4 times** since its trading launch in July 2010—accounting for ~0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, no such rapid decline occurred
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