Arthur Hayes: Market Crash Not Result of Secret Conspiracy, Only Upside Ahead

On February 8th, on-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reported that Trend Research—a subsidiary of Yihua—transferred its final 0.148 ETH to an exchange, concluding an 8-day sell-off. Over the period, the firm sold 658,168.58 ETH total, valued at $1.354 billion. With an average entry cost of ~$3,104.36 per ETH and an average selling price of $2,058.05, the round incurred a $688 million loss. Notably, Trend Research has surrendered all $315 million in profits from its prior cycle, resulting in a cumulative net loss of $373 million.

**February 8th** Du Jun, co-founder of ABCDE, retweeted a screenshot from Li Lin’s WeChat Moments to clarify recent claims. Li Lin stated in the post: “I am not the investor behind Yi Lihua’s Trend Research, nor am I linked to Garrett Jin—the agent of ‘BTC OG Whale Insider.’ I have never reduced my BTC or ETH holdings in this market cycle.” Du Jun added further context: - Li Lin’s family office, Avenir Group, remains BlackRock’s IBIT’s largest Asian holder. - U.S. SEC 13F reports are updated quarterly. - ~80% of the ETH held by the family office is pledged and held long-term. - To his knowledge, 95% of the funds are managed by the family office’s in-house team—no external institutions or individuals are entrusted with management.

On February 8, Scam Sniffer released its January 2026 Security Report, highlighting key crypto-related security incidents from the month. A January victim lost $12.25 million after copying an incorrect address from a transaction record—mirroring a $50 million loss suffered by another user in December 2025 for the same mistake. Additionally, signature phishing attacks spiked in January: 4,741 people fell victim, losing a combined $6.27 million—up 207% from December 2025.

On February 8, per Arkham data, at 10:49 UTC+8, Trend Research—an arm of EasyHua—transferred roughly 534 ETH to Binance, valued at approximately $1.11 million, completing a full liquidation. The on-chain address now holds just 0.165 ETH.

On February 8, LookOnChain monitoring data shows that Trend Research—a subsidiary of Yihua—sold an additional 20,770 ETH in the past 20 minutes, valued at $43.57 million. This leaves only 10,303 ETH remaining, worth approximately $21.5 million. A report from yesterday noted that Trend Research has largely completed its ETH sell-off, with the final net loss on its ETH positions totaling roughly $734 million. Position breakdown: - Long 231,000 ETH at an average price of $2,667, liquidated at an average of $4,027 → Profit of $315 million - Long 651,500 ETH at an average price of $3,180, liquidated at an average of $2,053 → Loss of $734 million

As of Feb 8, alternative data indicates today’s Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index is 7 (up from 6 yesterday), with market sentiment still in the historically rare “extreme fear” zone. Such extreme fear has only been observed twice before: June 2022 and August 2019. Note: The Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0 to 100, with components including: Volatility (25%) + Market Volume (25%) + Social Media Hype (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin Market Dominance (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).