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Bernstein: Robinhood Stock Still Has 87% Upside, 'Crypto Market Fear' Just a Temporary Phenomenon

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On February 11, The Block reported that Robinhood’s stock price dipped on Tuesday following the company’s announcement of a year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter cryptocurrency business revenue. However, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein noted this weakness reflects temporary “crypto market stress,” reaffirming their $160 price target. While Robinhood’s total platform revenue hit an all-time high, its cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Bernstein analysts said the revenue softness tied to reduced crypto trading activity was “in line with expectations,” adding there’s no need to turn bearish as the stock nears a cyclical low. Despite “crypto market stress,” the company’s various business metrics remained “robust” in Q4. Additionally, Robinhood Banking—set to launch by the end of 2025—has already attracted over 25,000 funded accounts with a total balance exceeding $400 million. Analysts highlighted Robinhood’s prediction market set a new record, accounting for roughly 14% of trading revenue and 8% of total revenue. The platform traded 8.5 billion contracts in Q4, far outpacing prior expectations. The report noted early 2026 trading volume has reached $4 billion, whereas the company’s previous full-year 2026 projection was $27 billion.
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U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Data Far Exceeds Expectations, Signaling Improvement in the Labor Market

February 11 Financial Times (FT) reported on January’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, noting the U.S. economy added 130,000 new jobs—far exceeding market expectations. The figure signals an improvement in the U.S. labor market, following a string of weak prior readings. U.S. Treasury yields surged as investors pared back expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The two-year Treasury yield—highly sensitive to monetary policy—jumped to 3.55%, hitting a one-week high. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. After years of robust growth, U.S. hiring slowed sharply in 2025. A batch of new reports released last week highlighted rising layoffs and falling job openings, suggesting the labor market could deteriorate further. However, the latest NFP data will reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the labor market is showing signs of “stabilization.” (Source: FXStreet)

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After the US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate announcement, Bitcoin briefly surged over 1%.

February 11 — Per HTX Market Data, Bitcoin briefly climbed more than 1% to around $67,500 following the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate figures. U.S. Treasury bonds broadly declined across the curve after the jobs data was published. Earlier reports showed the U.S. January seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, far exceeding the market’s 70,000 estimate and marking the largest monthly gain since Q4 2025. The January unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, slightly below the 4.4% forecast and prior reading of 4.4%.

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Traders Fully Price In Fed July Rate Cut, Previously Seen in June

February 11: Traders have fully priced in a Fed rate cut for July, having previously anticipated the cut in June. (Xinhua News Agency)

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US Unemployment Rate in January: 4.3%, Expected: 4.40%

February 11: U.S. January Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs. 4.40% expected, 4.40% prior (FXStreet)

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US January Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll +130K, Expected +70K

February 11: U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 130K vs. 70K Expected; Prior Revised Down to 48K (from 50K) - Forex Factory

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Analysis: The recent pullback in the crypto market may be influenced by traditional financial factors, not industry-specific issues

On February 11, CoinDesk reported that several industry insiders have noted the recent crypto market slump is a **traditional finance-driven event** rather than a crypto industry crisis. As yen interest rates climb, borrowing costs rise—and heightened volatility has pushed margin requirements higher. For instance, margin requirements for metal trading have jumped from 11% to 16%, forcing some traders to liquidate positions. This has exerted downward pressure on cross-market risk assets—not just crypto. While Bitcoin ETFs saw active trading amid the slump, industry insiders emphasize this does not signal a full-scale exodus of institutional investors. Emma Lovett, Head of DLT Credit at JPMorgan Markets, noted that a more lenient U.S. policy landscape is fueling experiments ranging from private chains to public chains and stablecoin settlements. By 2026, the integration of traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto infrastructure is expected to deepen further.

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