Tonight, ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is 21.7%.

On February 11, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that ahead of tonight’s release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 21.7%, while the likelihood of holding interest rates unchanged stands at 78.3%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (expected: 7,000 new jobs) and January’s unemployment rate (expected: 4.40%) tonight at 21:30 Beijing Time (UTC+8). Ahead of upcoming key U.S. employment and inflation readings, investors are growing cautious, sending Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lower. Analysts note the market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting clearer guidance on interest rate trends. Meanwhile, demand for downside protection in crypto-related stocks—such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy—is rising.