CPI Outlook: Economists Expect CPI Data to Beat Expectations Every January

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**Reuters Survey: US Jan CPI Forecast at 0.3% MoM, 2.5% YoY** A Reuters poll of economists shows the median expectation for U.S. January CPI is 0.3% month-on-month growth—on par with December 2023. Forecasts range from 0.1% to 0.4%. Year-over-year, the CPI is seen rising 2.5%, a slight dip from December’s 2.7%. Economists cite the exclusion of last year’s higher inflation readings as the main driver. When releasing the January CPI report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will unveil recalculated 2025 seasonal adjustment factors to reflect 2025 price changes. This could revise seasonally adjusted CPI indexes for the past five years. Economists note the BLS model update may not fix the CPI’s “January effect”—a trend where January data consistently tops expectations. (IG)

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