Willy Woo: Market Front Running Quantum Threat of 4M Coins of Selling Pressure, BTC Price Action to Remain Depressed

On February 16, prominent analyst Willy Woo noted that Bitcoin’s 12-year valuation trend relative to gold has recently broken. While BTC’s relative valuation should be higher, it hasn’t materialized—largely due to growing concerns over quantum computing, with markets beginning to price in potential risks in advance. Bitcoin could later be patched with quantum-resistant signatures, but this won’t resolve the issue of ~4 million "lost" BTC (early private keys vulnerable to quantum cracking) re-entering circulation. Woo estimates a 75% probability these lost bitcoins won’t be frozen via a protocol hard fork, so markets need to anticipate sell pressure from the 4 million tokens. Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, total holdings by corporations and ETFs amount to just 2.8 million BTC. The 4 million lost tokens represent 8 years of corporate accumulation, driving significant supply dilution. Until "Q-Day" (Quantum Computing Threat Implementation Day, expected 5-15 years from now), BTC’s price will continue to be weighed down by this overhang.