JPMorgan Chase: Projected Massive Tax Refunds to Boost Bitcoin Price, $150 Billion Expected to Flow into the Market by End of March

On February 18, CNBC reported that Wells Fargo said some U.S. taxpayers may receive larger tax refunds this year than in prior years—funds that could flow into risky assets like stocks and Bitcoin. The bank cited two key drivers: last summer’s “Beautiful Act” includes provisions favorable to 2025 taxpayers, and the IRS did not update its withholding tables last year, so salaried workers are less likely to face unexpected tax bills from prior adjustments. In its latest analyst report, Wells Fargo noted these factors could push a potential $150 billion in market inflows by the end of March, when over 60% of tax refunds are expected to be distributed. The bank’s analysts added this expected liquidity injection would boost Bitcoin and retail-investor-favored stocks like Boeing and Robinhood. “We believe extra savings from tax refunds—especially for high-income consumers—will flow back into the stock market,” Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon said in the Sunday report. “Increased savings will fuel speculative sentiment... We expect the ‘YOLO’ mentality to make a comeback.” Analysts also noted Bitcoin acts as a liquidity proxy, signaling shifts in investment patterns. Per Wells Fargo data, U.S. liquidity dropped by $105 billion over the past four weeks, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 29% in the last month.