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The U.S. Economy's Growth Slowed Significantly in the Fourth Quarter, with Trump Administering a Preemptive Dose to the Market

2 hours ago

February 20 — U.S. Q4 economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter, dragged by last year’s government shutdown and cooling consumer spending. Tax cuts and AI investments, however, are seen supporting economic activity this year. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday released preliminary Q4 GDP data showing the economy expanded at a 1.4% annual pace. Reuters-surveyed economists had forecast a 3.0% growth rate, but the survey (completed before Thursday’s data) noted the December trade deficit widened to a five-month high. Ahead of the report, former President Trump posted on social media: “The government shutdown cost U.S. GDP at least 2 percentage points. That’s why they (Democrats) want another small shutdown. Let’s not shut down again! Also, lower interest rates!” (FXStreet)
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Boston Fed: Neutral interest rate may be 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points lower than current policy rate

On February 20, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston noted that the neutral interest rate could be 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points below the current policy rate.

12 minutes ago

Trump Calls Supreme Court Ruling a "Disgrace"

On February 20, U.S. President Donald Trump called a Supreme Court ruling a "disgrace." He added that following the decision, he had an alternative tariff plan in place. (Xinhua)

12 minutes ago

The Netherlands Declares Polymarket Illegal and Orders It to Cease Operations

On February 20, the Netherlands’ gambling regulator ruled that Polymarket was offering unlicensed gambling services to Dutch users—violating the country’s Gambling Act—and ordered it to cease operations. The regulator noted Dutch users could register on the platform, deposit funds, and place bets, which constitutes “games of chance” requiring official licensing. Non-compliance could lead to weekly fines of up to €420,000, with a maximum cumulative penalty of €840,000. Polymarket argued it operates a prediction market, not traditional gambling, but the authority rejected this claim. (Source: Decrypt)

12 minutes ago

Kalshi Futures Market: Probability of "Court Orders Trump to Return Tariffs" Quickly Rises to 66%

Feb. 20: Prediction platform Kalshi reports the market now sees a 66% chance a court will order Trump to refund tariffs by July 2026—up sharply from roughly 30% previously.

12 minutes ago

Bitcoin Price Shorts Liquidated as BTC Price Spikes to $68K, James Wynn's Leveraged Short Position Gets Liquidated

Feb 20 (HTX Market Data) — 15 minutes ago, Bitcoin briefly spiked up to $68k before quickly pulling back below $67k, last trading at $66,932.55. That move instantly liquidated James Wynn’s 40x-leveraged Bitcoin short position opened tonight — though his position was small, valued at under $80k.

12 minutes ago

The U.S. Supreme Court did not rule on the issue of duty drawback eligibility

Feb. 20: Market reports note that even though a ruling has deemed Trump-era tariffs illegal, the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on tariff refund eligibility. Hundreds of tariff refund lawsuits are currently pending before the U.S. Court of International Trade.

12 minutes ago