Bitcoin Downside Risk to $55K Grows to 73% This Year

February 21st, VanEck released its Mid-February 2026 Bitcoin On-Chain Report. Key findings include: - **BTC Declines, Sentiment Weakens**: Bitcoin has dropped 29% over the past 30 days, pushing the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator closer to the "Fear" zone (it briefly entered "Greed" earlier). Leverage has reset, with open interest falling to levels last seen in September 2024. - **Mid-Term Holders Dominate, Selling Pressure Eases**: Realized selling remains concentrated among the 1-5 year holder cohort, though the distribution pace of holders with 1+ years of tenure has slowed notably over the past month. - **Miner Margins Pressured, Hash Rate Contracts**: The network’s hash rate has declined ~14% in the past 90 days, reflecting a tightening mining economy. Historically, similar scenarios have often signaled stronger subsequent Bitcoin returns.

As of February 21st, GMGN monitoring shows Solana-based meme coin Lobstar’s market cap climbed today, hitting a peak of over $15 million before retreating to roughly $10.6 million. That’s a 579% 24-hour surge, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $28.4 million. BlockBeats notes that meme coin trading carries extreme volatility, driven largely by market sentiment and hype—with no underlying real value or use case. Investors are advised to exercise caution.

Kitco News’ latest weekly gold survey, published February 21, shows bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts has reclaimed dominance, while retail investors have maintained a modestly bullish stance for a third straight week. Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International, noted there’s been no fundamental shift in gold’s market drivers to justify the prior pullback—calling it clearly a short-term correction. “This is healthy,” he said, adding the uptrend should resume soon. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, pointed out the Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff policy could leave him in a foul mood this weekend, raising the odds of military action. Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said gold appears to have hit its low following January’s selloff and is clearly rebounding. “No one wants to sell ahead of the weekend due to fears the U.S. may act against Iran,” he explained. If tensions don’t escalate, gold coul

February 21 —— Coinglass data shows Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed in negative territory for 37 consecutive days, currently at -0.0523%. This streak tops the roughly 30 days of negative premium recorded during the October 11, 2021 market crash. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index tracks the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and the global market average. A negative premium typically signals heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, diminished investor risk appetite, growing risk aversion, or capital outflows.

February 21st Analyst Darkfost notes that a dynamic factor suppressing Bitcoin demand has been gradually shifting since the start of the year. On December 18th, Bitcoin’s monthly cumulative on-chain demand hit a low of -154,000 BTC. Since then, demand has improved steadily and recently moved back into positive territory at roughly +1,200 BTC. This reversal marks the end of nearly three months of consecutive negative demand—a phase largely responsible for the subdued price action seen so far. The analysis notes that with reduced selling pressure and signs of improving demand, Bitcoin is finally sending constructive signals—provided this trend holds over the next few weeks. Note: On-chain demand is defined as daily block rewards minus changes in the supply of Bitcoin inactive for over a year. It’s used to measure whether long-term holders are effectively absorbing newly issued bitcoins.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment reports that since Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) last October, retail-focused wallets holding <0.1 BTC have grown by ~2.5%, with their holdings hitting a mid-2024 high. In contrast, whales/sharks holding 10–10,000 BTC have seen their total holdings drop by ~0.8%. This structural split often fuels price volatility and blocks a clear trend from emerging. Bitcoin is currently trading around the $60k level. Market sentiment notes retail buying pressure is providing short-term floor support and momentum. But a sustainable rebound requires big holders to halt distribution and shift to net accumulation. Analysts note retail participation isn’t lacking right now— the key is whether whales pause selling pressure and shift to structural buying. Otherwise, every rebound risks being met with selling at highs.