Analysis: BTC Hodler Buyer Position Hits This Cycle's Peak, Bear Market Bottom Not Far Away

February 21st Crypto analyst Murphy noted that analyzing on-chain data across **price and time dimensions** suggests the bear market bottom is near. ### Price Context For reference, look at the last cycle: In June 2022, BTC tumbled to ~$17k—nearly touching the final absolute bottom of ~$15k, signaling we’re already in the "bear bottom zone" now. But it took 7 full months to fully exit that zone and finish bottoming out back then. Right now, prices are creeping closer to that bottom zone—but there’s still a ways to go on the time front. ### Key Metric: Conviction Buyers (CBs) These are crypto’s sharpest "diamond hands": They buy on dips, sell into rallies. Put simply: **Bottoms are built by CBs, not just bought at by them.** As of February: - CBs hold 3.48 million BTC → **shattering their cycle-high position** - Since January, they’ve added 1.22 million BTC → *Way more* than during the 2021 May 19 crash, LUNA collapse, or FTX meltdown. Plus: BTC’s current price is *higher* than it was during all those past events—and these "smart money" players are putting more capital to work *now*. ### What This Signals No one can pinpoint the exact bottom, but CBs don’t chase the absolute low. They’ll keep buying as long as the risk-reward makes sense—until they soak up all excess supply. When supply/demand balance hits, the bear bottom zone forms. Then, after months of consensus-building, a new trend takes hold. Historical data confirms: Today’s CB resolve and strength check all the boxes for "we’re close to a bear market bottom."