K33 Research: Lack of Data Support for "Jane Street 10 AM Flash Crash" Narrative

On February 26, Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, published an analysis showing that between January 2025 and February 2026, Bitcoin’s average minute-by-minute returns at 10:00 AM actually ranked in the top 25% of all minutes in a day. While negative returns did occur at 10:00 AM over the past four months, there are still 34 minutes throughout the day that performed worse. Lunde noted that Bitcoin’s volatility peaks cluster around U.S. macroeconomic data releases and the U.S. stock market’s opening/closing windows (9:31–9:37 AM). This stems from the market’s microstructure being tightly tied to the U.S. stock market—not targeted manipulation at specific times. When it comes to “price manipulation,” the performance of non-whole-hour minutes (like 10:12 AM and 9:41 AM) is more noteworthy. The widely debated “Jane Street 10 AM price manipulation” lacks data backing.