Next Week Macro Outlook: US and Israel Join Forces to Ignite "Middle East Powder Keg," Non-Farm Payrolls Data to be Released on Friday

February 28 – U.S.-Iran tensions escalated fully today. Geopolitical uncertainty will persist next week, with global markets poised for volatility amid risk-off sentiment. Analysts note: Beyond direct missile strikes, Iran’s retaliatory options could include mining the Strait of Hormuz – the critical oil trade chokepoint that handled 30% of global seaborne oil shipments last year. That said, they add, Iran may favor using proxies like Houthi fighters or Iraqi Shia militias for precision strikes on regional energy infrastructure or U.S. diplomatic sites, given potential economic fallout for major oil importers. Alongside geopolitical developments, key U.S. macro events on tap next week include: - Monday 22:45: U.S. February Final Global Manufacturing PMI - Monday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 22:55: FOMC Permanent Voter & New York Fed President John Williams speaks - Wednesday 00:55: FOMC 2026 Voter & Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks - Wednesday 21:15: U.S. February ADP Employment Change - Wednesday 22:45: U.S. February Final Global Services PMI - Wednesday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Thursday 20:30: U.S. February Challenger Job Cuts - Thursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 28 week) + U.S. January Import Prices (m/m) - Thursday 23:00: U.S. February Global Supply Chain Pressure Index - Friday 21:30: U.S. February Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) + U.S. January Retail Sales (m/m)