US-Iran Conflict Spurs $600M in Bets, Polymarket Launches Multiple Related Contracts

On March 1, hours after the U.S. launched an airstrike against Iran, decentralized prediction platform Polymarket rolled out over a dozen contracts tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict—with total wagers topping $600 million. Among these, the contract “Will Khamenei lose his position as Supreme Leader by March 31?” settled at 100% following confirmation of his death, with single-market trading volume hitting $45 million. The “Will the U.S. strike Iran by a specified date” contract, launched last December, has amassed $529 million in total trading volume, ranking among the platform’s largest markets ever. Additionally, the “Iranian regime collapses by June 30” contract now has a 54% probability, while the “U.S. deploys military forces to Iran by March 7” contract stands at roughly 28%. On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps noted six wallets correctly bet on “U.S. airstrike on Iran the same day” ahead of the February 28 airstrike, netting ~$1.2 million in total profits—raising red flags over potential insider trading.