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Geopolitical Escalation Exacerbates, Weakens Rate Cut Expectations, March Fed Rate Cut Probability Only 2.7%

3 hours ago

**March 3:** Amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns over climbing oil prices have amplified potential inflation risks and dimmed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting is just 2.7%, while the chance rates will hold steady stands at 88%. For the period through April, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 87.3%, with a 12.5% chance of a cumulative 25-bp cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50-bp cut. The Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29.
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