Insight: Global Liquidity Continues to Rise, Cryptocurrency Market May See Trend Reversal Supported by Policy and Stablecoins

On March 8, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal noted: "Global liquidity is the most impactful macro factor in history. Since 2012, it’s correlated ~90% with Bitcoin and up to 97% with the Nasdaq 100. Currently, global liquidity is growing at an ~10% annual rate, with no signs of slowing. The GMI Financial Conditions Index typically leads global liquidity by ~6 months, and it remains in a persistently loose state now. The U.S. is poised for additional rate cuts, which will lift disposable income—boosting willingness to invest in risk assets. The CLARITY Act is likely to pass, driving new fund inflows. Many banks and asset managers are eager to adopt this technology, and the act will establish a clear regulatory framework for it. Stablecoins are growing rapidly: issuance rose 50% last year and continues to accelerate. The U.S. currently has its most crypto-friendly government environment ever. Finally, AI agents are on the horizon, with potential for exponential growth and a massive new market. Meanwhile, the crypto market remains in panic mode—most indicators show it’s approaching one of its most oversold levels ever. The weekly DeMark indicator is set to form a strong bottom structure within two weeks. A further pullback next could complete daily-weekly signal resonance, setting the stage for a full trend reversal. The biggest current risk: how long oil prices stay high. The next two weeks are a critical observation window. I expect all this to play out positively in the end."