View: Iran Situation Could Trigger US Recession, Cryptocurrency Pullback is a Correction to Previous Overbought Situation

March 9 — Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone said in an X post that markets are debating whether the Iran situation could trigger the next U.S. economic recession. U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, and the Nasdaq 100’s 180-day volatility is near its lowest level since 2018. A significant spike in future volatility would validate his market reversal assessment, he noted. Recent crypto asset declines may be just the start of the “post-inflation era deflation domino effect,” McGlone added. The crypto market’s prior sharp rally, paired with increased supply, has driven a price correction. On oil: The commodity’s recent sharp rally often squeezes shorts, spurs higher supply, and may raise global economic recession risks. Volatility in precious metals and energy markets could gradually spill over to equities, he predicted. McGlone forecasts U.S. Treasury bonds may become the top excess return asset in 2026, following Bitcoin (2024) and gold (2025). However, his current assessment would be falsified if: - Bitcoin stabilizes above $74,000 - Copper rises to $6 - Silver hits $100 - The S&P 500 reaches 7,000 points - The Dow hits 50,000 points - U.S. bond yields rise above 5%