Garrett Jin: Risk Assets to Remain Under Pressure Until Reliable Path through the Strait of Hormuz Reopens

On March 10, Garrett Jin—agent for the "BTC OG Insider Whale"—posted on social media: "Before Brent crude’s March 9 surge, prices at $85/bbl reflected supply disruptions lasting 2–14 days. At $119.5/bbl, the market was already pricing in supply destruction risks, but the full repricing of that duration is just getting started. The Hormuz Strait crisis impacts markets through independent, mutually reinforcing channels—not just a spike in risk-off sentiment, but a systemic shift in cross-asset correlations, geographic risk distribution, and how markets price extreme event durations. Until a credible path to reopen the strait emerges, risk assets will stay under pressure. Even if the crisis eases then, insurance mechanisms alone will take 3–6 weeks to rebuild. For risk assets, bullish scenarios include: Strait of Hormuz reopening, a ceasefire from a successful summit, or other positive developments. Downside scenarios (diplomatic failure, prolonged strait closure) have no historical pricing benchmarks. Either way, recent trends show a surge in duration premiums for oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations—with risk assets remaining under pressure until viable solutions materialize."