EIA Significantly Raises U.S. and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts for This Year

Tonight, March 11, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the February non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year CPI was 2.4%—in line with expectations (2.40%) and unchanged from the prior reading (2.40%). Per CME’s FedWatch Tool, the current probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting is just 0.7%, while the odds of no rate change stand at 99.3%. Odds of the Fed holding rates steady through April are 89.1%, with a 10.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 0.1% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. The Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29.

Per Bitget market data as of March 11, spot silver extended its decline, falling below $25 per ounce with a daily drop of 3.78%.

On March 11, Ledger’s in-house security research team Donjon uncovered a vulnerability in the secure boot chain of MediaTek processors. An attacker with physical access to a phone can extract encryption keys via USB before the operating system loads, decrypt device storage, and obtain the device PIN plus encrypted wallet mnemonic phrases in roughly 45 seconds. In a proof-of-concept test, the flaw successfully pulled sensitive data from wallet apps including Trust Wallet, Kraken Wallet, and Phantom. Researchers note the vulnerability may impact roughly 25% of Android devices—specifically models using MediaTek chips and the Trustonic Trusted Execution Environment (TEE). Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet emphasized smartphones were never designed to be safes; while the flaw can be patched, it highlights the inherent risk of storing keys on non-secure devices. Users are advised to update security patches as soon as possible.

March 11 — Bitcoin mining pool operator Foundry Digital announced Wednesday plans to launch a U.S.-based Zcash (ZEC) mining pool next month, targeting institutions and publicly traded companies with a platform centered on regulatory compliance, reporting standards, and operational controls. Foundry CEO Mike Colyer noted Zcash has evolved into an institutional-grade asset, but its mining infrastructure has not kept pace. He aims to fill a prior gap by offering those miners dedicated U.S.-based compliant infrastructure for Zcash exposure. The new pool will conduct KYC and AML checks on participants, distribute mining rewards to transparent (not shielded) Zcash addresses, use the PPLNS payment model, and have no minimum hashrate threshold.

**Trump Welcomes Iran’s 2026 World Cup Participation, Reversing Earlier Stance** March 11: Former President Donald Trump said he welcomes Iran’s participation in the 2026 World Cup—jointly hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—contradicting his past comment that he “really doesn’t care if Iran participates.” Last night, Trump met with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and White House FIFA Working Group Executive Director Andrew Giuliani in the Oval Office. The 2026 tournament kicks off June 11 and wraps July 19 (39 days total). Iran is slated to face New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15, followed by a match against Belgium on June 21. On prediction market Polymarket, Spain leads favorites to win with a 15% chance, trailed closely by England, Argentina, and France.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday (March 11) that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% from a year earlier in February—matching January’s reading and economists’ surveyed expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also climbed 2.5% year-over-year as forecast. However, U.S. benchmark crude oil futures have seen sharp volatility since the Iran conflict flared. This month’s average trading price stands at around $82 per barrel, up from roughly $65 in February. As a result, March’s inflation data could be even hotter. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, estimates a rule of thumb: every $10 increase in oil prices per barrel lifts the Labor Department’s inflation reading by about 0.2 percentage points. While calculations vary slightly among economists, most agree oil prices will push inflation higher in March. Economists also note that last year’s government shutdown left October housing cost growth data missing, artificially s