Israel acknowledges inability to ensure collapse of Iran regime, US indication end of war still far off

March 11—A senior Israeli official told Reuters that in closed-door discussions, Israeli officials have acknowledged a war with Iran would not necessarily lead to the collapse of its theocratic regime, and there are no signs of an uprising among the Iranian people despite ongoing bombardment. Two Israeli officials noted that while former President Trump suggested the war could end quickly, Israel’s assessment is the U.S. is far from directing an end to the conflict. On the day of the U.S.-Israel joint airstrike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “Our joint action will create conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands.” He specifically referenced Iran’s main minority groups, fueling reports that the U.S. or Israel may back these groups in an uprising. However, Netanyahu reiterated in a statement Tuesday that while Israel hopes to help the Iranian people “break free from the shackles of tyranny,” ultimately “it’s up to them”—a sign the uprising is not imminent. Per monitoring by PolyBeats (link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot), the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of the “Iranian regime collapsing this month” has dropped to 5%, while the odds of it falling by June 30 have fallen to 23%.