Bitwise CIO: If Bitcoin Captures Part of Gold and Sovereign Debt's Value Storage Market, It Could Reach $1 Million

March 15 Per CoinDesk, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reaffirmed his $1 million Bitcoin price target this week. In a new report, he noted Bitcoin’s long-term upside hinges on the market share it can grab in the global store-of-value market. Hougan said the global store-of-value market (including gold, government bonds and other defensive assets) has grown from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today, with Bitcoin holding just ~4% of that market currently. Under current conditions, if Bitcoin could capture roughly half of that market, its price could hit ~$1 million in about a decade. He acknowledged: “A $1 million price sounds outlandish—it would mean Bitcoin needs to rise another 14x from its current level.” While many analysts agree with this trajectory, they differ on the timeline. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan noted: “Geopolitical tensions have boosted Bitcoin’s narrative—investors are seeking neutral store-of-value assets amid uncertainty, and Bitcoin is increasingly viewed alongside gold in this space.” But he thinks hitting that target could take a decade or longer, and hinges on sustained institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. Bitlease founder Nima Beni, meanwhile, argues that if confidence in traditional “safe” assets crumbles—like during a sovereign debt crisis or a shock to the gold market—the timeline for Bitcoin to hit $1 million could shorten.