Bridgewater's Ray Dalio: Control of the Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Whether U.S. Hegemony Endures or Collapses

On March 17, Ray Dalio—founder of Bridgewater Associates—released a lengthy article titled *It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The Final War*. A core takeaway on the Iran situation: the conflict’s outcome hinges entirely on who controls the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran retains authority over who may pass through the strait, or even keeps the power to negotiate terms, the U.S. will be deemed to have lost this conflict. Should Trump and the U.S. fail to win, they will be viewed as having caused an irreparable disaster. No matter the reasons the U.S. cannot secure control of Hormuz, both Trump and the nation will face defeat. The impact of losing Hormuz on the U.S. mirrors the 1956 Suez Canal crisis’s effect on Britain, as well as similar failures that struck the Dutch Empire in the 18th century and the Spanish Empire in the 17th century. Patterns leading to empire collapse are nearly identical, and this decisive “final war” will determine whether U.S. global hegemony survives or crumbles.