Willy Woo: Current Bounce a Bull Trap, Bear Market Bottom Structure Not Fully Formed Yet

**March 17** A short-term rate option trade betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high long-term closed out for a roughly $10 million profit this week, ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting. Initiated in January, the trade was tied to Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)-linked options, with its core wager that U.S. interest rates would exceed market consensus by mid-2028. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) open interest data showed selling activity in the related options last Friday, confirming the profitable position closure. The trade remains anonymous—no specific institution or individual has been identified yet. Market analysts note the trade was positioned before the Middle East conflict escalated. Recent crude oil price surges (to their highest level since 2022) have reignited inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back Fed rate-cut expectations. This pushed SOFR futures lower and lifted corresponding put option prices, driving the profi

**Forex traders are piling into safe-haven assets on March 17 to brace for potential extreme volatility, closely tracking Middle East developments to prepare for what lies ahead.** Following the initial shock of a war outbreak and oil prices surging to $100 a barrel, investors are leveraging this relatively calm period to buy options with low probability but high potential returns in the event of sudden exchange rate swings. Demand for hedging options against extreme exchange rate fluctuations—such as butterfly options—has risen, with euro-dollar options hitting an 11-month high in early March. (FXStreet)

March 17 — An Argentine court has ordered a nationwide block of crypto prediction market platform Polymarket, per a March 11 ruling from Buenos Aires’ 31st Criminal, Misdemeanor and Petty Offenses Trial Court. The court directed the Argentine National Communications Regulatory Agency (ENACOM) to block access to Polymarket’s website and related domains for users. The case was filed by the Buenos Aires City Gambling Regulatory Agency (LOTBA). Juan Rozas, the local prosecutor overseeing gambling matters, launched an investigation, accusing Polymarket of offering unlicensed gambling services to Argentine users—allegedly violating the country’s criminal code. The court ordered ENACOM to enforce the block via internet service providers (ISPs) and report immediately to the court or gaming prosecutor’s office if technical issues arise. It also asked Google and Apple to delist and restrict Polymarket’s Android and iOS apps in Argentina, including limiting access for existing users. The

March 17 — Per Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock deposited 567 BTC (~$41.78 million) and 22,657 ETH (~$52.40 million) into Coinbase, with potential additional deposits expected to follow.

On March 17, data from DefiLlama shows that trading volume on perpetual DEXs (Perp DEXs) has rebounded recently, while open interest across major platforms continues to trend upward. Hyperliquid, in particular, has seen a cumulative 27.8% gain in positions since the start of this month. Below are the latest 24-hour trading volume and open interest figures for leading Perp DEXs: - Hyperliquid: ~$8.45 billion (24h volume); ~$6.99 billion (open interest) - Aster: ~$3.41 billion (24h volume); ~$2.09 billion (open interest) - EdgeX: ~$3.31 billion (24h volume); ~$1.17 billion (open interest) - Lighter: ~$2.47 billion (24h volume); ~$0.793 billion (open interest) - Apex: ~$1.36 billion (24h volume); ~$0.128 billion (open interest) - Pacifica: ~$0.555 billion (24h volume); ~$77.1 million (open interest)

March 17th Citing HyperInsight monitoring (Telegram: https://t.me/HyperInsight), spot gold prices dipped below $5,000 per ounce—pushing GOLD contract prices on Hyperliquid (https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD) lower in tandem. Currently, the platform’s largest GOLD short position address (0xacb) holds an unrealized profit of $620,000, with a 7% margin and an average entry price of $5,113. Additionally, over the past 30 minutes, another address opened simultaneous short positions in GOLD and SILVER totaling $6.3 million. The average GOLD short price is $5,003, and both positions are in unrealized profit.