The "Stock Market Guru" Trump is once again manipulating the market, softening his stance 48 hours before the deadline.

On March 23 (over the weekend), former U.S. President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran via Truth Social: "If Iran does not unconditionally and peacefully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants—starting with the largest one!" This hardline stance quickly lifted global oil prices: Brent crude spiked at one point, escalating market panic and weighing on U.S. stocks. In response, Iran issued a stern statement: should its energy facilities come under attack, it would retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water infrastructure in the Middle East. Yet on the eve of the ultimatum’s deadline, Trump’s position shifted dramatically—180 degrees: he ordered a pause on planned strikes against Iran’s power plants and announced a 5-day temporary ceasefire to make room for negotiations. This "tough first, soft later" move immediately reversed market momentum: oil prices dropped, stocks rebounded. Investors familiar with Trump’s playbook had long labeled this pattern "TACO Trades" (Trump Always Chickens Out). During the 2025 tariff war, this acronym was already a Wall Street staple: Trump would open with tough statements to stoke panic and push asset prices lower, then "back off" or delay action—sparking quick market rebounds and profit-taking. The current Iran incident is viewed as the latest TACO iteration: first, maximum pressure to send oil prices and panic assets soaring; then, a rapid softening to trigger short-covering and a rebound in risk assets. Some analysts note this "big splash, then retreat" play has become a signature Trump move in his second term—particularly when juggling geopolitical and trade negotiation challenges. The U.S.-Iran conflict is now in its 4th week: the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, ground troop movements are visible, but whether Trump’s "strike pause + 5-day ceasefire" is just another TACO gambit or a genuine shift to diplomacy will emerge in the next 48 hours.