Analysis: Bitcoin Bear Market Enters Late Stage, $64,000 Key Support Level

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March 26 (Cointelegraph) — Bitcoin has once again fallen below $70,000, with multiple on-chain and technical indicators signaling the current bear market is entering its late stage. On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, placing it in the “Hope/Fear Zone.” CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader noted this means ~40% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in a loss position, while the Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 15 (indicating “extreme fear”) — reflecting “pain and uncertainty.” He added that a NUPL rebound above 0.25 would signal a shift to the optimistic zone, a transition historically aligned with strengthening price momentum. Glassnode reported the 7-day average of Relative Unrealized Loss has stabilized at 15%. Historically, resolving this level of embedded losses requires time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of significant fresh capital in a compressed timeframe. Additionally, Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted realized profits have plummeted from a July 2025 peak of $3 billion daily to less than $100 million now — a drop of over 96%. Glassnode calls this “further evidence of demand exhaustion” and a “textbook characteristic of the late bear market transition.” For key price levels: Bitcoin has recently traded in a range, with support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000. Glassnode noted Bitcoin is struggling to hold its 1-week to 1-month holding cost basis ($70,200), and buy order accumulation at this level remains weak. The risk of a breakdown below this level cannot be ignored until buyers establish more solid support. The main lower support sits around Bitcoin’s realized price (~$54,000), while upper resistance includes the 1-3 month holding cost basis ($82,200) and a short-term concentration zone above $84,000. Technical analyst CryptoPatel said Bitcoin’s recent rally to $76,000 is just a lower high, with the high-timeframe structure “pointing lower” — and the area below $50,000 is the next zone to watch.

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