Bitunix Analyst: Job Market Cooling Combined with Energy Retrenchment, War Spillover to Tech Infrastructure, Market Enters "Risk Pricing Distortion" Phase

April 1 saw the market hit simultaneously by three disruptions: weakening employment, energy supply contraction, and war escalation. The decline in U.S. job openings signals softening labor demand; gasoline prices rising to $4/gallon and OPEC production dropping to a new low since the pandemic peak imply another passive tightening of energy supply, with unresolved inflationary pressures pushing policy paths back into uncertainty. Meanwhile, Buffett continues to hoard cash, and the CFTC is ramping up regulation of energy and information manipulation—reflecting mainstream funds cutting risk exposure and being wary of market price distortions. On the geopolitical front, a qualitative shift has emerged. Iran has not only refused to back down but expanded its attack scope, moving beyond traditional energy and military facilities to U.S. tech and data infrastructure, explicitly naming operational bases of several Silicon Valley and defense firms in the Middle East. This signals the war has escalated from an “energy supply chain” issue to systemic risks involving “digital and computing infrastructure.” Meanwhile, divisions within NATO have deepened: core European countries are restricting military coordination, while the UAE has shifted to active military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. This shows the world has not forged a unified action framework, but instead entered a state of multi-party jockeying and responsibility outsourcing, further eroding the market’s ability to price risks effectively. Against this backdrop, fund behavior has turned extremely conservative and short-term-focused: on one hand, demand for cash and safe-havens is rising; on the other, energy and war premiums continue to disrupt valuations of risk assets, leaving the market without a stable anchor. As a result, BTC’s trend is not proactive—it’s a passive reflection of whether funds are willing to take on risk. Currently, significant liquidity has accumulated in the $69,000–$70,100 range, but prices are under pressure near $68,000 in the short term, indicating a lack of buying interest. Below that, $65,500 has become a short-term risk test zone; if macro conditions worsen or war escalates again, this area could turn into a liquidity release point. Overall, the market has shifted from “event-driven” to “structural distortion”: weakening employment has failed to spark looser policy expectations, ongoing energy contraction continues to push up hidden inflation, and the war has spread from physical supply chains to digital infrastructure. Amid this tangled web of multiple uncertainties, any price fluctuation is essentially a result of liquidity redistribution—not the establishment of a new trend.