Bitunix Analyst: Energy and Industrial Metal Supply Chain Synchronously Impaired, War Escalates to "Physical Production System," Market Enters Inflation and Risk Mismatch Phase

On April 2, the core market contradiction expanded further—shifting from “uncertain energy supply” to “physical industrial capacity damage.” EGA, the Middle East’s largest aluminum smelter, was attacked and fully shut down, alongside output cuts at multiple regional aluminum plants. This signals the war has not only disrupted energy and shipping but directly fractured the industrial metal supply chain, shifting inflationary pressure from oil prices to the manufacturing sector. Combined with OPEC production cuts and the Strait of Hormuz blockage, global supply constriction has escalated from a single category to a “dual squeeze of energy + industrial raw materials,” pushing inflation expectations higher again. Federal Reserve officials have explicitly stated the energy shock will broadly drive up prices, forcing policy to remain restrictive. Meanwhile, former President Trump has laid out a clear timeline for escalating military strikes in the next 2–3 weeks but offered no path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or de-escalate the conflict. This has sent oil prices soaring, bond yields rebounding, and gold being sold off—signaling the market has not entered a typical safe-haven mode, but shifted to “liquidity repricing”: funds are pulling out of non-yielding assets to move into cash and assets with pricing power. Additionally, the U.S. may impose new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, while advancing policies in tech, defense, and resources simultaneously. This is further fragmenting global trade and supply chains, with risks becoming more widespread. Geopolitical tensions remain highly unstable. Iran has shown no willingness to engage in substantive negotiations, instead ramping up regional strikes and strategic deterrence—suggesting the conflict is evolving from bilateral confrontation to multi-party involvement, raising risks of long-term escalation and loss of control. Against this backdrop, market behavior reflects classic “short-termism and defensiveness”: U.S. employment and manufacturing data look stable, but price indicators are rising, meaning the economy hasn’t weakened yet but is already under cost pressure. This is prompting funds to cut duration and risk exposure. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade as a risk asset: upside liquidity in the $69,000–$70,100 range is accumulating but not being effectively digested, keeping prices pressured below $68,000 (reflecting weak risk appetite). The $65,500 downside level is a key test in the current structure; a fresh escalation in energy tensions or the war could trigger a chain reaction of liquidity unwinding. Overall, the market has entered a new phase dominated by “supply chain disruption”: energy, metals, and geopolitics are all in play, lifting inflation expectations without supporting growth—creating a classic mismatch between risk and price. Without a policy anchor or an end to the war in sight, asset prices will remain driven by liquidity and risk sentiment.