Analysis: BTC Officially Enters Second Half of Bear Market, Final Dip Unlikely to Break $45,500

April 3rd, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the on-chain average cost basis for BTC held 1–2 years (yellow line) has crossed above that for BTC held 1–3 months (orange line). This signal is nearly 100% confirmed in on-chain data, marking BTC’s official entry into the latter half of the bear market. Additionally, Murphy noted that Willy Woo—renowned Bitcoin on-chain analyst—saw his long-term valuation metric CVDD hit $45,410 at the end of last month, with only a slow $506 increase since February 10. This reflects that early whale holders have significantly reduced, or nearly halted, on-chain activity. CVDD is one of the few metrics in Bitcoin’s history that has never failed: BTC’s price has always traded above CVDD, and bear market bottoms only ever approach it without breaking below. Thus, even if there’s a “final drop,” BTC will theoretically not fall below ~$45,500—with a maximum potential decline of ~30%, though the actual drop is likely far smaller.