Analyst: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Dominated by Shorts, Longs Continuously Face Liquidation Pressure

On April 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that the **Bitcoin Exchange Position Index (BEPI)** is a comprehensive indicator measuring long/short aggressiveness in derivatives markets, tracking the current open position direction of futures traders. The index’s 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-30d) hit a local high of +3.0 on March 17, when Bitcoin traded at $73,925. It has since trended lower consistently, now sitting at -3.1—signaling ongoing short position accumulation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving in lockstep with price declines, further confirming a weakening market structure. The **Liquidation Oscillation Index (LOI)** has rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and is steadily climbing, hitting 18.6% today. This signals ongoing forced long liquidations, preventing the market structure from recovering. Red bars (indicating dominant short liquidations) have been absent since October 2025. Until the 30-day Moving Average (30DMA) declines and notable red bars reappear, long position pressure will persist. A downward reversal of the 30DMA would be the first sign of restored liquidation balance. The two indicators’ synchronous reversal reinforces each other. Bitcoin is down ~11% from its $74,883 peak, and the current derivatives structure lacks a foundation for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, long liquidations persist, and short squeeze rallies are nearly non-existent. **Current stance**: Risk aversion. **Key downside risks**: If liquidation pressure persists and the SMA-30d stays below the zero line, the bearish pattern will solidify further, and downward pressure on Bitcoin (including a break below $66,000) will intensify.