Iran Military Rejects Trump '48 Hours' Ultimatum

April 5th — Economists say the sudden surge in gasoline prices U.S. consumers are experiencing will be fully reflected in key inflation data due out this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise 1% month over month, marking the largest monthly gain since 2022; core CPI is seen increasing 0.3%. Prior to this, the Iran conflict pushed gasoline prices at U.S. stations up by roughly $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will shed light on pre-conflict price pressures. Economists expect the core PCE price index likely rose 0.4% in February for the third straight month—signaling the slowdown in inflation to a more moderate pace stalled even before the conflict erupted. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, persistent price pressures and new inflation risks from the Middle East conflict, this helps explain why the Fed may struggle to cut interest rates this year. (FXStreet)

April 5 – Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf appeared to threaten disrupting commercial shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, according to an April 3 report from NBC News’ website. Qalibaf posted on X (formerly Twitter) asking, “What share of global oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), wheat, rice and fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz?” He followed with, “Which countries and companies account for the largest share of shipping volume through this strait?” In recent years, vessels transiting the region have been repeatedly targeted by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are allied with Iran’s regime. The threat comes as Iran has already significantly disrupted shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of the waterway has roiled the global economy.

On April 5th, The New York Times website reported that two U.S. military transport planes malfunctioned and became stranded during a pilot rescue mission in Iran. The U.S. military then sent three replacement aircraft to continue the mission and destroyed the two disabled transport planes.

On April 5, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as saying a US military aircraft was shot down in Isfahan Province while searching for a pilot.

On April 5th, U.S. President Donald Trump stated: "The U.S. military has pulled off one of the most daring rescue operations in American history. We’ve rescued one of our incredible aircrew members. At my direction, the military deployed dozens of fighter jets carrying the world’s ‘most lethal weapon’ to retrieve our missing pilot. He was injured but will make a full recovery."

April 5 — Al Jazeera reports a U.S. official has stated the second crew member aboard the downed F-15E fighter jet was rescued after "intense fighting."