Analysis: BTC Loss-Chasing Chips have an average cost of 93,600 USD, with many underwater positions at high prices already panic sold.

April 5th: On-chain analyst Murphy noted that the average cost basis of all Bitcoin (BTC) unrealized loss positions has fallen below $100,000, currently sitting at $93,600. This means BTC returning to $93,000 would hit the market’s average breakeven point. During the two sharp selloffs in late 2023 and early 2024, a wave of high-level trapped positions chose to cut losses and exit—lowering the overall average cost of unrealized loss positions. This is commonly known as a "shakeout." Additionally, the 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost of loss positions and current BTC price stands at 1.4. For the past three bear market bottoms, this coefficient was at least above 2.0 (see blue waveform below). A coefficient ≥2.0 signals the market has entered the absolute bottom range. Currently, BTC’s price is less than 50% of the average cost of loss positions. To meet the 2.0+ coefficient threshold, this cycle’s BTC low would need to drop to $46,800. However, historical patterns aren’t always reliable, and this bear market may have a far lighter "pain level" than any prior cycle. Per PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, the market for "Bitcoin hits $60k first or $80k first" shows a 68% probability of $60k first, versus 32% for $80k first. [Note: PolyBeats data sourced from its Telegram bot: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot]