Bitunix Analyst: Fed Minutes Show Inflation Stickiness Resonating with Policy Lag, Market Enters "Rate Cap Extension" Pricing Phase

On April 9, after the U.S. and Iran reached a Phase 1 ceasefire, the two sides did not return to stable equilibrium—instead, they moved into a more challenging dynamic: the supply shock has not fully dissipated, while demand remains resilient, prolonging high inflation. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos noted the core takeaway from the latest signals: the end of hostilities did not ease policy challenges; instead, it left the Fed stuck in a middle ground—unable to ease rates and finding it hard to tighten further. From a policy standpoint, FOMC meeting minutes have explicitly rejected the narrative that “war equals a rate cut trigger.” Three structural factors are key constraints: delayed tariff pass-through, energy prices feeding into core inflation, and the risk of long-term high inflation reanchoring expectations. Though the ceasefire has reduced the tail risk of runaway energy prices, market data has also removed the last condition that would have forced the Fed to pivot amid a recession—pushing policy toward keeping rates high for longer. This signals the market will gradually shift from “rate-cut timing trades” to “high-rate duration trades.” Across markets, the rebound in risk assets is not driven by fundamental improvements—but rather a repricing of removed extreme risks. Energy prices have stopped surging, but they also can’t return to pre-conflict levels. This “high-level stagnation” will keep eroding corporate costs and consumer purchasing power, while rising risk appetite eases financial conditions marginally—creating a mix even less favorable to taming inflation. The outcome: lower recession odds but higher inflation pressure, passively delaying policy shifts. Turning to crypto market structure, Bitcoin’s recent rally is essentially “liquidity replenishment after risk unwinding”—not a trend driven by new capital. Looking at the liquidation map: - The 73,000–73,300 range above is a high-density liquidity zone and potential pressure area; it failed to hold as stable support after a short-term breakout, signaling weak follow-through capital. - The 69,800–70,100 range is the current primary trading and oscillation core. - The 64,800–66,600 range below is a strong support zone and area of accumulated long liquidations. The overall structure is a classic asymmetric setup: “liquidity lures longs above, liquidity supports below.” Until macro uncertainty is fully resolved, Bitcoin will remain tied to shifts in risk sentiment.