Fed's Daly: Rate Cut 'Not Off the Table' if Iran Conflict is Quickly Resolved, Oil Prices Ease

On April 10th, Bitget market data indicates that at the opening of U.S. stock trading: - Dow Jones dropped 0.01% - S&P 500 gained 0.24% - Nasdaq rose 0.43% Crypto-related stocks posted broad gains, with the following moves: - BitMine (BMNR) up 2.37% - Sharplink Gaming (SBET) up 2.18% - Gemini (GEMI) up 1.64% - Bullish (BLSH) up 1.33% - MARA Holdings (MARA) up 1.14% - MicroStrategy (MSTR) up 0.96% - Coinbase (COIN) up 0.20%

April 10: U.S. stocks are edging toward a recovery from losses tied to the "Iran conflict," as investors increasingly bet geopolitical impacts will be short-lived, per CNBC. Oil markets, however, remain far more cautious. A two-week ceasefire announced Tuesday night sparked a relief rally, helping major indexes recoup more than two-thirds of losses since the conflict erupted in late February. The S&P 500 now sits less than 1% below its pre-conflict level (6,878.88 points). Meanwhile, crude prices stay elevated amid ongoing Middle East supply bottleneck concerns. Barclays strategists noted in a client report: "Equity markets are pricing in a far more optimistic 'good outcome' than oil markets—stock index performance has clearly outpaced the pullback in oil futures." They added the rally was partly driven by strong short-covering, as short positions were forced to close during the uptick. Barclays also cited growing investor confidence in President Trump seeking an "exit strateg

April 10: Brian Deese, White House National Economic Council Director, said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two months. The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and the prospect of such a rate cut remains stable. (FXStreet)

Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, commented on the U.S. March CPI report on April 10th: “The key takeaway is core inflation—actually slightly below expectations—while overall inflation came in higher than anticipated, particularly on a year-over-year basis. While the data aren’t overly concerning right now, they haven’t yet captured the full impact of the energy crisis. Looking ahead, additional inflation is clearly expected, but the key signal—core inflation coming in below expectations—suggests energy prices will eventually feed through the entire system gradually and show up later. For now, though, inflation stays high and sticky.”

April 10: Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo of Goldman Sachs Asset Management said the market had already priced in strong inflation data, so today’s in-line inflation reading brought some relief. However, this may be the best overall inflation print we’ll see for a while—since the data only partially reflects the full impact of the Iran conflict, which briefly pushed U.S. crude and gasoline prices up ~70%. She added: “The Fed has room to be patient, and there are good reasons to do so. Today’s data bought the Fed some time, but the real test lies ahead.” (FXStreet)

April 10 – U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, hitting a new high since May 2024 and matching market expectations. The prior reading was 2.40%. Following today’s CPI release, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the April meeting is now 1.6%, while the odds of no rate change stand at 98.4%.