Next Week Outlook: Geopolitical Risks Reignited as US-Iran Talks Fail to Reach Agreement, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Out

April 12 — The Middle East situation worsened sharply over the weekend, following a brief ceasefire cooling-off period. ### Key Developments: - **U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse**: 21-hour negotiations ended in deadlock after Iran rejected the U.S.-proposed “no nuclear weapons development” clause. - **Ambiguous Dialogue End**: U.S. Vice President Vance announced the talks’ conclusion with vague wording. - **Trump’s Attack Pause Nears End**: His declared two-week attack suspension is winding down with no clear outcome. - **Hormuz Strait Dispute**: A U.S. destroyer claimed the first post-conflict transit of the Strait of Hormuz — a claim Iranian officials immediately denied, signaling ongoing information warfare. ### Market Outlook for Next Week: Geopolitics will dominate sentiment; any Hormuz-related news could trigger asset price swings. Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar focuses on two critical themes: 1. **Fed Policy Signals**: Speeches by Fed officials (including voters) and the release of the Beige Book. 2. **U.S. March PPI Data (Tuesday)**: A key gauge of how Middle East energy shocks have passed through to production costs. Banking giants (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup) will kick off Q1 2026 earnings season. Tech players (TSMC, ASML, Netflix) follow later. The season is a critical check on corporate earnings resilience, AI demand sustainability, and macro impacts. --- ### Event Schedule (ET): - **Tuesday 8:30 PM**: U.S. March PPI (YoY, MoM) - **Wednesday 12:15 AM**: Chicago Fed Pres Gülsün Emin (2027 FOMC voter) speaks at Semafor panel - **Wednesday 12:45 AM**: Fed Gov Barr delivers workshop opening remarks - **Wednesday 1:00 AM**: Fireside chat with Philly Fed’s Haak, Richmond Fed’s Balkin, Boston Fed’s Collins, and Gov Barr - **Thursday 1:40 AM**: Fed Gov Bauman speaks - **Thursday 2:00 AM**: Fed releases Beige Book - **Thursday 8:30 PM**: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 11 week); April Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - **Thursday 8:35 PM**: NY Fed Pres Williams (permanent FOMC voter) speaks - **Thursday (TBD)**: ECB March policy meeting minutes; G20 Finance Ministers/Central Bank Governors meet --- ### PPI Analysis: Commerzbank economists warn energy-to-non-energy goods transmission “could shift rapidly.” A hotter-than-expected PPI would further narrow the Fed’s rate-cut window — though markets have largely ruled out cuts this year.