The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in April is now reported to be 99.5%.

April 15 (CBS) — The White House announced Wednesday that 103 oil tankers are en route to U.S. ports to load American crude oil. Amid the global oil crisis, the administration stressed the U.S. is serving as a "vital lifeline to the world" thanks to record domestic energy production. The Trump administration noted that of the 103 empty vessels, 54 are Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — each capable of transporting roughly 2 million barrels of crude. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer, with pre-conflict daily production at 13 million barrels. The nation exports about 11 million barrels per day (bpd) and imports 8 million, making it a net oil exporter.

WSJ reported on April 15 that two U.S. officials disclosed more than 20 merchant vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. While commercial shipping volume remains a small fraction of pre-war levels, traffic in the key waterway has improved. One official said the ships included cargo vessels entering and exiting the Persian Gulf, container ships, and oil tankers. Some turned off their transponders during transit to mitigate the risk of Iranian attacks. During wartime, most ships hesitated to navigate the narrow waterway due to threats of Iranian attacks and mines. Currently, the U.S. is enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports; ships not bound for Iranian ports are exempt and may transit freely.

April 15 (Krypton Capital) — Chicago Federal Reserve President Gulsbee said Tuesday that if the Iran war drives long-term high oil prices and slows inflation’s return to the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank may hold off on rate cuts until 2027. Addressing the Semafor World Economic Conference, Gulsbee noted: “I initially expected multiple rate cuts in 2026. But if this situation persists and inflation stays elevated without showing signs of decline, the timeline will push beyond 2026. Our mandate is to bring inflation back to 2%.” Once a more optimistic voice within the Fed, Gulsbee had previously argued tariff-driven inflation would ease this year, enabling the central bank to resume rate cuts. His confidence has since waned, however. “In some scenarios, rates could rise; in others, this proves temporary: once the Middle East oil shock resolves and inflation falls toward our 2% target, rate cuts will be back on the table,” he said.

April 15th: The two-plus-hour Lebanon-Israel meeting in Washington has concluded, per the Israeli Embassy in the U.S. Representatives from the Israeli and Lebanese governments held direct talks in the U.S. capital on April 14th. Notably, Israel and Lebanon have no diplomatic ties. This gathering marks the **first direct non-military talks between the two countries in decades**. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with both delegations at the State Department on the 14th and participated in the talks held there. The Israeli delegation was led by Gilad Erdan, Israel’s Ambassador to the U.S., while the Lebanese side was headed by Najla Eljath, Lebanon’s Ambassador to the U.S. Also joining were Dorothy Shea, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, and Michael Nides, a State Department advisor.

U.S. to let temporary sanctions waivers on Iranian oil shipments expire this week, per April 15th market reports citing two U.S. officials. (FXStreet)

CNN Reports: On April 15th, U.S. officials said the Navy is not currently escorting any ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but has notified commercial vessels (excluding those calling at or departing Iranian ports) that the waterway is safe for transit and encouraged them to proceed. The U.S. has not imposed a full blockade on the strait—only on vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports along Iran’s entire coastline.