S&P Rebounds 10%, Nasdaq Rises for Tenth Straight Day, Market Immune to US-Iran Conflict, Pricing in Favorable Outcome

April 15 — After over a month of Middle East conflict, U.S. stocks have staged a V-shaped rebound. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 10% since March 27, on track for a third straight week of gains. The Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, has risen ~12% over the same period, marking its longest winning streak since 2021. After five weeks of losses spurred by U.S.-Israel airstrikes, traders are now ignoring Middle East negatives and buying stocks aggressively again. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs’ Delta One desk, noted: “The market seems to have already declared victory in its ‘war’ with Iran—even though the conflict itself hasn’t truly ended.” Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum mining firm BitMine, said: “The stock market’s resilience stems from the economy performing better than expected—even amid war.” He added: “Markets are great at pricing in outcomes in advance. The current rally signals the market is betting on a favorable outcome, though I can’t pinpoint the exact reasons. That’s the message the market is sending.” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said: “Neither the stock market nor the broader financial market seems overly worried about the Strait of Hormuz situation. As earnings season kicks off, corporate fundamentals are driving stock prices more powerfully than headlines about Iran.” Senior strategist Ed Yardeni noted the market is learning to “coexist” with the Iran conflict and still sees the S&P 500’s March 30 low as its bottom. Latest updates: U.S. President Trump said the Iran conflict is “coming to an end.” Per Fox News, Trump told an interviewer Iran “would like to make a deal now” regarding future U.S.-Iran relations. The New York Post reported Trump noted negotiations could “begin within the next two days” in Pakistan—building on last Saturday’s lengthy, unproductive talks in Islamabad. Trump’s comments drove sharp market moves: Bitget data shows WTI crude fell 4% intraday. Japanese and South Korean stocks opened higher today: the Nikkei 225 rose 0.71% at the open, hitting its first intraday high above 58,000 since March. The KOSPI jumped 2.98% at the open to 6,145.62 points.