The Bank of Japan Likely to Hike Rates This Quarter, April or June Move Still Debated

**Reuters Survey: Nearly Two-Thirds of Economists See BOJ Hiking to 1% by June End Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty** Nearly two-thirds of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1% by the end of June, according to a Reuters survey, with market bets on a hike this month or June roughly balanced amid uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The survey, conducted April 7–14, polled 71 economists: 46 (65%) predicted the policy rate would hit 1% by June, up from 60% in March and 58% in February. Of the 40 economists who gave a specific timing, 38% picked April and 35% chose June—up from last month’s survey, where 32% favored June (the highest share then), followed by 30% for July and 27% for April. Economists still broadly expect the BOJ to tighten policy this quarter, a view unchanged since the U.S. launched military action against Iran on Feb. 28. The conflict has amplified market concerns over rising energy prices, resurgent inflation, and further yen weakness—reinforcing hawkish rate hike expectations. Looking beyond June, the median forecast sees the BOJ raising borrowing costs to 1.25% in the fourth quarter (slightly earlier than prior outlooks). The median also projects a 25-basis-point hike to 1.50% in the third quarter of 2027, with rates held through year-end; a handful of institutions, however, predict a rise to 1.75%. (Kinjun)