Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire Expectations Lower Hedging Premium, but Sanctions and Shipping Restrictions Simultaneously Expand, Market Enters Mismatched Phase of "Surface Easing, Internal Contraction"
On April 17, markets shifted to repricing the "form of war" instead of the "existence of war." U.S.-Iran talks moved from a comprehensive deal to a temporary framework, with more ceasefire signals—apparently cutting the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions. This directly reduced demand for the safe-haven USD and boosted risk asset flows. But the U.S. also expanded shipping and energy-related sanctions on Iran—covering crude oil, refined products, and industrial metals—meaning supply-side constraints haven’t been lifted, just become more structural.
This "expected easing vs. actual tightening" mismatch is distorting market pricing. Energy markets haven’t seen meaningful loosening, but the USD weakened as risk appetite picked up—creating a classic asset misalignment: safe havens are pricing in an optimistic scenario early, while commodities still reflect constrained supply. That’s why Wall Street is uniformly turning bearish on the USD. The shift isn’t about deteriorating fundamenta
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Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth of Hong Kong: "Predictive markets" sports betting is considered illegal gambling and the promotion of new gambling projects should be halted
April 17th – The Hong Kong government has decided to suspend plans for a basketball betting project, RTHK reports.
Hong Kong’s Secretary for Home Affairs, Caspar Tsui, told the outlet in an interview that authorities have tracked rapid growth in the “prediction market” in recent years: monthly trading volume jumped from under $100 million two years ago to over $13 billion last year, with nearly 40% of transactions tied to sports. The government worries launching a new betting project now would draw more public attention and could push people toward illegal gambling via the prediction market. As a result, it will pause new betting project promotions and conduct further research before deciding next steps.
Tsui noted existing regulated betting projects have a mature monitoring system to control risks, but the prediction market remains uncertain. “As a responsible government, we need to first research its impact and prevalence in Hong Kong,” he said. He added the government works cl
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UBS: Still Expects the Fed to Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points Later This Year
April 17 – A UBS research report noted the Federal Reserve remains on track for further monetary easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed the need for tighter monetary policy amid rising energy prices, saying policymakers typically “look through” supply shocks like surging oil costs—especially when inflation expectations stay well anchored.
While the Fed still wants more evidence of sustained moderation in core inflation before easing policy again, we expect a 50-basis-point rate cut later this year. Given U.S. Treasury yields are well above pre-conflict levels, we see ample room for them to decline; our year-end targets are 3.25% for 2-year Treasuries and 3.75% for 10-year Treasuries, respectively.
(FXStreet)
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Greeks.live: This Week the Crypto Market Begins to Rebound, But On-Chain Metrics Still Show Bearish Signs
Greek.live shared April 17th options expiration data via social media on April 17:
- 22,000 BTC options expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.05, Max Pain at $72,000, and a notional value of $16.5 billion.
- 100,000 ETH options expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.95, Max Pain at $2,250, and a notional value of $4.6 billion.
The market extended its rebound this week: Bitcoin trades around $75,000, signaling recovery with notable gains in select sectors. Bitcoin’s options market share has edged lower, while altcoins are gaining momentum. Per open interest maturity, 70% of options open positions cluster between April 24 and June 26—with heavy concentration around late April and late May.
Key options metrics:
- Bitcoin’s front-month implied volatility (IV) has dropped sharply this month, with most tenors now near 40%.
- Ethereum’s front-month IV has also declined to ~60%.
- Short-term IV held steady this week, while medium-to-long-term IV continued falling.
- Skew is risi
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CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin is entering a "Value Accrual Zone," with limited downside
April 17th — Per CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) — which combines MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index — is currently testing a key historical pivot zone.
Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) noted the BCMI has dropped to the 0.2–0.3 range. While an immediate “V-shaped” reversal isn’t guaranteed, this range historically signals deep undervaluation for BTC. Data shows the latest pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels last seen in early 2023, but the 90-day moving average (the white line) still trends downward. From a conservative standpoint, waiting for this line’s slope to flatten will signal selling pressure has finally exhausted.
Additionally, Woominkyu believes the market is entering a “value accumulation zone,” where downside risk is shrinking relative to long-term upside potential. Still, price stability is needed to confirm the index’s bottom signal.
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