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Pre-ceasefire "God Tier Prediction"? $430 million Precise Bet on Oil Price Drop Raises Insider Trading Suspicions

3 hours ago

On April 22, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 15-minute extension to the Iran ceasefire agreement—sparking a $430 million bearish bet on crude oil and raising fresh suspicions of potential insider trading. Data shows this marks the third such "well-timed" large trade this month, and the fourth since the conflict began, ahead of major Middle East developments: - March 23: ~$500 million in bets on falling oil prices placed 15 minutes before Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power facilities; - April 7: $950 million short position established hours before the ceasefire was announced; - April 17: ~$760 million bearish bet placed 20 minutes before Iran said it would open the Strait of Hormuz; Total similar trades in April have topped $2.1 billion. Repeated "event-preceding trades" have drawn market focus to information leakage and regulatory arbitrage risks. Analysts note that amid highly sensitive geopolitics, such activity could raise concerns if it involves undisclosed information or undermines market fairness.
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