Analyst: Without an extreme black swan event, the $60,000 range is expected to become the bottom of this bear market

On May 5th, analyst @Murphychen888 noted that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) net position trend reversal has historically preceded the asset’s price bottom—weakening supply-side pressure creates conditions for a bottom to form. Since February 10, 2026, LTH net positions have risen, accumulating ~324,000 BTC by April 30. Over the same period, Short-Term Holders (STH) cut their holdings by 184,000 BTC, with some converting to new LTH positions. Excluding these conversions, original LTH actively added ~140,000 BTC—becoming a key driver of LTH growth. Comparing to past cycles: In the last bear market, LTH net positions bottomed and turned higher on July 23, 2022. Barring the FTX scandal-induced panic selloff, the $19k-$22k range likely would have formed the bottom zone. Similarly, after LTH positions rebounded in July 2019, the $7k-$9k range became the bottom zone (excluding the “312” extreme event). With LTH net positions bottoming and rising on February 10, 2026, the $62k-$65k range is likely this bear market’s bottom zone (or very close to it) if no extreme black swan event hits. Rising LTH net positions mean more STH are holding steady, while believers keep accumulating—pushing the market’s floor higher and speeding up the bottoming process. The supply-demand shift is the most critical data to watch in a bear market.