Bitunix Analyst: Global Central Banks and Geopolitical Risks Simultaneously Exerting Pressure, Market Repricing "High-Rate Extension" and Energy Supply Uncertainty

**May 5th Market Update** Global markets are currently weighing two key narratives: the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) renewed hawkish stance on inflation, and escalating Middle East tensions that threaten energy supplies and global supply chains. The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week—near-unanimous market consensus. Firms including Goldman Sachs, Bank of the West, and Citigroup see room for additional hikes ahead, citing persistent energy price pressures and uncooled labor market tightness. On the U.S. front, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Williams delivered a critical policy signal: there is currently insufficient reason to hike rates again, but above-expectation inflation this year means rate cuts will be delayed. This underscores the Fed’s unchanged core logic—only that the high-interest-rate environment may persist longer. Notably, amid rising risks in the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices, markets are reassessing how energy-driven inflation could disrupt global central bank policy trajectories. Elsewhere, Japanese markets have seen sharp volatility, with investors watching for further yen intervention by authorities. For U.S. dollar liquidity: the Treasury raised its Q2 borrowing estimate to $189 billion, signaling continued pressure from Treasury supply absorbing market funds. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains the biggest external variable for global markets. Actions in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on the UAE, U.S.-Iran naval standoffs, and former President Trump’s strong warnings to Iran have amplified energy supply chain risks. What markets truly fear now isn’t just short-term oil price swings—but whether global shipping, insurance costs, and supply chain stability will face renewed pressure. In crypto, Bitcoin has recently tracked global risk appetite and U.S. dollar liquidity closely. As macro uncertainty mounts, demand for high-volatility assets like crypto will remain under pressure.