Bitunix Analyst: High Interest Rates Coexist with Geopolitical Risks, Market Enters "Demand Slowing but Liquidity Not Loosening" Phase

May 6 – Global markets continue to absorb three key themes: economic slowdown, energy risks, and prolonged high interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised rates for the third straight meeting, reflecting ongoing concern over sticky inflation. Even as global demand cools slightly, energy and supply chain uncertainties keep policymakers leaning hawkish. Latest U.S. data signals a gradual slowdown: service sector growth is decelerating, and the March trade deficit hit $603 billion. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) still tilt toward delayed rate cuts—not resuming hikes—meaning the market’s core worry isn’t an immediate downturn, but high rates sticking around longer. Geopolitically, the U.S. says its offensive military operations against Iran have ended, and former President Trump has suspended the “Freedom Plan” to de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran still claims both sides are at war, and the UAE keeps issuing missile threat alerts—so energy supply chain and shipping risks remain unresolved. In crypto, BTC has again neared a ~$82,000 high, but derivative market structure hasn’t strengthened in lockstep: funding rates stay negative. This shows prices are elevated, but leverage sentiment is conservative, and short-term capital is cautious about chasing gains. The market is still driven mostly by liquidity, not a broad rebound in risk appetite.