Trump Says He Feels the US Is Getting Closer to an Agreement with Iran

On May 6, Polymarket data shows the probability that Strategy will sell any amount of Bitcoin by year-end has jumped sharply to 49%—up from just 12% on May 5. Additionally, the odds of any Bitcoin sales by May 31, 2026, stand at 17%, while the figure rises to 26% for June 30, 2026. This shift follows Strategy founder Michael Saylor departing from his longstanding "never sell" stance for the first time. During the company’s Q1 2026 earnings call, he noted the possibility of offloading a portion of its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends, saying: “We might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, with the aim of market desensitization and signaling that we have indeed done so.”

On May 7, Onchain Lens data shows a freshly created wallet withdrew 349,999 HYPE tokens from Coinbase over the past 24 hours (valued at roughly $15.21 million) and has since staked the tokens.

On May 6, advisory firm SOC Investment Group called on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate SpaceX’s financial health ahead of its planned initial public offering (IPO), which could value the company at over $2 trillion. The firm expressed concern over SpaceX’s ties to other companies owned by Elon Musk. Per a May 6 letter sent to the SEC, SOC asked the regulator to review the accuracy and reliability of SpaceX’s financial disclosures and confirm the independence of its audit firm. SOC also pushed the SEC to examine how SpaceX accounts for transactions with Musk’s other companies. In the letter, the firm noted: “We are particularly concerned that SpaceX’s IPO will expose a broad set of investors to a company whose value could drop once its financial disclosures are independently reviewed and verified.” (Jinse)

On May 6, Kraken launched CFTC-regulated cryptocurrency spot margin trading for U.S. retail users—shortly after its parent company acquired the Bitnomial derivatives platform. Such products were previously unavailable to most U.S. retail users, pushing many to offshore platforms. Kraken noted users can trade with up to 10x leverage, using their crypto assets as collateral without selling them. The launch follows Monday’s announcement that Payward—Kraken’s parent company—has finalized its acquisition of Bitnomial. Based in Chicago, Bitnomial is a crypto derivatives exchange with CFTC licenses as a matching platform, contract market, and clearinghouse. Payward said the deal will eventually let it offer regulated spot margin, perpetual futures, and options to U.S. users. The move also bolsters Kraken’s position in regulated derivatives infrastructure as it eyes a potential public listing. Payward filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exch

On May 6, Glassnode’s latest report noted that Bitcoin has climbed above its Realized Price Cap ($78,200) and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($79,100). If it holds above this range over the next week, the “deep value phase” that began in February 2026 could become the shortest in Bitcoin’s history. The next key resistance level in the current market sits around $85,200. On-chain data shows the 30-day Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has flipped positive, hitting 0.003% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized profits have risen to $180 million daily, though still well below the cycle’s earlier peak of over $1 billion. Daily unrealized losses, however, remain elevated at $479 million—140% above this cycle’s stable range. Glassnode notes these losses need to keep falling below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery. On the funding front, the 30-day net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has flipped positive again, signaling a rebound in institu

May 6 — Sources familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal that Iran and the U.S. are working through a mediator to finalize a one-page, 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) outlining a framework for one month of talks aimed at ending the war. The key points will form the core of the next round of negotiations, which could resume as early as next week in Islamabad. Iran has signaled willingness to discuss its nuclear program, showing more flexibility than its prior stance. Unresolved issues include the duration of Iran’s uranium enrichment suspension, whether highly enriched uranium (HEU) will be removed from the country, and Iran’s demand to retain a permanent supervisory role in the Strait of Hormuz — all expected to complicate final talks. Additionally, the timing and scope of sanctions relief may prove a sticking point. If progress is made, the one-month negotiation window can be extended by mutual agreement, sources said. An Iranian Foreign Ministry