Bitunix Analyst: Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls as BTC Loses $80K Liquidity Support

May 9: Markets are fully focused on tonight’s U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus estimates call for 62,000 new jobs added—well below the prior 178,000 reading, signaling a gradual cool-down in the U.S. labor market. However, the latest ADP employment report showed 109,000 jobs added, beating expectations, prompting markets to reassess whether labor conditions remain more resilient than anticipated. At this point, the market’s top focus is no longer whether the economy will enter an immediate recession, but if the current “low hiring, low layoffs” dynamic can persist. If unemployment stays low and wage growth remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will have more flexibility to keep interest rates higher for longer. Recent comments from Fed officials including Hammack and Collins have continued to signal support for holding rates steady. On the geopolitical front: While the U.S. and Iran have seen renewed clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, both sides are still leaving room for negotiations. Washington has stressed it does not seek escalation, and Middle Eastern media reports indicate partial agreements have been reached on maritime blockades. As a result, fears of full-scale conflict escalation have eased temporarily. Crude oil has pulled back toward the $95 range, though U.S. gasoline prices remain elevated—suggesting energy-driven inflation pressures have not fully abated. In crypto markets: BTC fell below the $80,000 level yesterday. Liquidation heatmap data shows substantial liquidity clustered around $78,000, with a breakdown potentially triggering further liquidations. However, the $82,000–$83,000 range above also holds dense short-side liquidity, meaning the market remains locked in a clear near-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears.