Analysis: Retail Investors Did Not Short the Bitcoin Rally This Time, Whales Accumulated a Large Amount of BTC Around $66,000
May 10:
Crypto analyst Murphy posted a note that retail investors haven’t been overwhelmingly shorting Bitcoin’s current trend.
He noted wallets holding fewer than 1 BTC saw their combined balance jump by 23,074 BTC over the past 30 days, with three distinct accumulation phases around $66k, $70k, and $80k. Murphy added most retail investors still active in Bitcoin during this cycle are seasoned “old hands” who’ve navigated altcoin and derivatives cycles.
At the same time, whales holding 10,000+ BTC began massive accumulation around $66k, with their peak balance gain hitting 140,699 BTC over the past 30 days — the largest net growth in nearly two years, signaling clear accumulation behavior.
Murphy stated markets always gravitate toward levels of lower resistance; with stronger support below current levels, prices naturally tend to rise until hitting stronger resistance.
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Circle will release its Q1 financial report tomorrow before the US stock market opens.
**Circle to Release Q1 USDC Issuer Financial Report May 11**
Per an official announcement, Circle—issuer of U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC—will publish its first-quarter financial report ahead of the U.S. stock market open on May 11. A conference call to discuss results and business progress is set for 8:00 PM Beijing time that day.
Market expectations:
- Q1 revenue: ~$715M (down ~7% QoQ from Q4 2025’s $770M, but up ~11% YoY)
- GAAP EPS: $0.18; adjusted EPS: $0.27
- Average analyst price target: $144.36
In ratings updates:
- Oppenheimer retains an **Outperform** rating with a $152 target
- Needham keeps a **Buy** rating but cuts its target to $130 (from $190)
Per Bitget data: Circle’s market cap is $28.1B, with shares currently trading at $113.67.
### Notes on American English adjustments:
- Used concise phrasing (e.g., "ahead of the U.S. stock market open" instead of "before the U.S. stock market opens")
- Leveraged common abbreviations (QoQ/YoY, EPS) and symb
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Qatar LNG Carrier Transits Hormuz Strait for First Time in About 70 Days
May 10 — A Qatari LNG tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Arabian Sea, bound for Pakistan, per the latest shipping tracking data from the Maritime Traffic Website (updated May 10).
This marks the first Qatari LNG vessel to pass through the strait in roughly 70 days, since the U.S. and Israel carried out military operations against Iran.
The ship used a new route recently opened by Iranian authorities. It transmitted position data via the Automatic Identification System (AIS) on May 9 (indicating entry into the Strait of Hormuz) before going silent on location signals for an extended period. The May 10 update confirms it has cleared the strait and entered the Arabian Sea.
(Xinhua)
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Solana-based Meme Coin TROLL Market Cap Surpasses $90 million, Surging Over 77% in 24 Hours
**May 10th**
Per GMGN monitoring, Solana-based meme coin **TROLL** has surged sharply in market capitalization: it surpassed $90 million, peaking at $91.47 million—marking a 77% gain over the past 24 hours. Its 24-hour trading volume hit $12.2 million.
BlockBeats notes that meme coins are extremely volatile, often driven by market sentiment and hype, with no underlying value or real-world use cases. Investors should be aware of the associated risks.
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The probability on Polymarket of the "Sell Any Bitcoin by End of Year" strategy has surged to 90%.
On May 10, the probability linked to a Polymarket prediction market question—“Will Strategy sell any of its held Bitcoin before year-end?”—surged to 90%, up from just 12% on May 5.
Additionally, the odds of Strategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026, stand at 49%, while that figure rises to 75% for June 30, 2026.
Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor broke the company’s longstanding “never sell” stance for the first time. During the Q1 2026 earnings call livestream, he noted the firm may sell a portion of its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends. “We might sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend,” Saylor said, “with the key goal of desensitizing the market and signaling that we have indeed done so.”
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Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show that BTC is still in a downtrend, while ETH sentiment is gradually improving and approaching neutral levels
**Crypto Market Update: May 10**
Per HTX market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $80,865.49, with a 24-hour price change of +0.58%. Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,330.88, up 0.52% over the same period.
### Funding Rate Sentiment
Mainstream centralized exchange (CEX) funding rates show:
- **BTC**: Most platforms have rates clustered **below 0.005%**, signaling persistent bearish sentiment.
- **ETH**: Rates have rebounded sharply—major platforms like Binance hover around 0.008%, while OKX hit exactly the 0.01% baseline. ETH has shifted away from prior bearishness but has not yet confirmed a valid bullish signal.
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**BlockBeats Note**:
Funding rates are set by crypto exchanges to keep perpetual contract prices aligned with underlying assets. They facilitate fund transfers between long and short traders (exchanges do not charge this fee), adjusting holding costs/profits to narrow contract-asset price gaps.
- **0.01% = baseline rate**
- **Above 0.01% = broad b
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