Tom Lee: Oil Price Surge is Ethereum's Biggest Headwind, Structural Tailwinds to Drive ETH Outperformance in 2026

May 18th: The latest QCP Market Report shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $78,000 mark. Before this, BTC had been consolidating around the $80,000 level, a trend primarily supported by open options positions. But with over $4 billion in IBIT options expiring last Friday, market makers’ at-the-money gamma support weakened, reducing the mechanical support holding up BTC’s spot price. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have retreated from their recent highs, and yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury notes rose to 4.62% and 5.14% respectively. The USD/JPY pair is nearing the 160 threshold, amplifying intervention risks and concerns about unwinding in the yen carry trade. The crypto market is likely to stay in a range-bound state until there is clear progress on tariff negotiations or U.S.-Iran talks.

On May 18, per Hyperinsight monitoring, a whale on Hyperliquid opened a 40x leveraged long position: 31.36 BTC, with a total position size of $2.4 million, entry price at $77,008 and liquidation price set at $76,032. This address closed all its positions today amid the broad market selloff, liquidating long positions across 10 different assets it had built up earlier. The long positions were held for over 30 days; their unrealized gains were completely erased by this downturn, and the whale ultimately exited at the break-even price. Wallet address: 0x21ed8665dabe127dba334147de0a73c2978f6995

May 18: According to Bitget market data, U.S. pre-market crypto-related stocks were broadly lower, with movements as follows: Sharplink (SBET) down 3.869%, American Bitcoin (ABTC) down 2.703%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) down 3.478%, Robinhood (HOOD) down 1.263%, and Gemini (GEMI) down 2.867%.

May 18 – A report from Fars News Agency, which is closely tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), states the country has rolled out a digital insurance platform for vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf shipping lanes, with policies paid and settled in Bitcoin. Dubbed Hormuz Safe, the platform is built to provide maritime insurance for ships transiting the strategic waterway and surrounding channels. It’s designed to give Iranian shipping firms and cargo owners a fast, verifiable digital insurance service—all processed in Bitcoin, with final settlements moving at blockchain speed. A document obtained by Fars shows Iran’s Ministry of Economy has been advancing this initiative since April of this year. The report projects this framework could pull in more than $10 billion in revenue for Iran via low-risk insurance products covering ship inspections, detentions, and seizures. Still, crypto publication The Block says it cannot yet independently

May 18 — Bloomberg reports that Standard Chartered Bank plans to acquire the crypto asset custody business of its subsidiary Zodia Custody to further expand the scope of its own digital asset operations. The London-based lender’s non-binding acquisition proposal has been accepted by Zodia Custody’s other shareholders and noteholders. Bloomberg first covered this proposed deal back in April.

May 18: During the last two cryptocurrency bear markets, May has brought sharp Bitcoin price drops in U.S. midterm election years. In May 2018, Bitcoin slid from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000. Then in May 2022, it plummeted from roughly $40,000 to $28,500 before tumbling even further to $20,000. Now, as 2026 falls in both a crypto bear cycle and a U.S. midterm election year, fears of that historical trend repeating are on the rise. Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar shared last Sunday: “This is the most brutal pattern Bitcoin has ever had. No one wants to hear it, but this pattern is far too consistent. During midterm election years, Bitcoin always crashes.” He believes even current positive factors—progress on the ‘CLARITY Act,’ the Trump administration’s signals of favorable crypto policies, and a potential U.S.-China trade deal—aren’t enough to break this historical cyclical pattern. If market sentiment worsens further, Enkelaar says Bitcoin could even drop to around $33,000. M