Analyst: On-chain data shows an extremely unusual "Whale" behavior in this cycle, with large holders' cost concentrated in the $80,000-$85,000 range.

May 20th – Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) took to social media to share that, per URPD data adjusted for entity-level factors and segmented by wallet size, today’s crypto market is seeing a massive divergence in cost baselines between whales and regular retail investors. Crucially, this cycle’s chip structure is totally distinct from what we’ve seen in prior market runs. The data breaks down that whales holding more than 100,000 Bitcoin have their average cost basis clustered heavily between $80,000 and $85,000, with smaller pockets sitting at around $70,000 and $40,000. That means, at today’s price levels, the whale cohort is overall underwater. Between $65,000 and $120,000, the top holders are wallets with 100–1,000 Bitcoin and 1,000–10,000 Bitcoin—retail investors make up a tiny share of this bracket. For the $20,000 to $60,000 range, it’s retail investors with 0.1–1 Bitcoin and 1–10 Bitcoin that dominate holding here. Below $20,000, whales are once again the primary holders. The analysis notes that in past market cycles, big holders typically dumped their coins at market peaks, distributing chips to retail investors who bought in at those high prices. The big difference this time around? Those large holders are stuck in high-priced positions. That means the next moves of these trapped whales—specifically whether they collectively cut losses and exit—will be a key factor shaping how deep this bear market goes. For retail investors in the $60,000 to $20,000 bracket, anyone looking to sell has already cashed out, and the remaining coins are almost certainly being held long-term.