JPMorgan Chase: S&P 500 Index Expected to Reach 9,000 by Mid Next Year

May 25 — In its latest research note, JPMorgan Chase said that while a 9,000-point S&P 500 by mid-2027 isn’t its core forecast, it’s a plausible scenario driven by an ongoing tech capital expenditure cycle, growing profit contributions from AI, and improving market risk appetite. The bank noted the market may be underestimating the likelihood of this upside path. At 9,000 points, the index would be roughly 20% higher than its current level. JPMorgan identified the Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) sectors as the primary catalysts for further gains, adding that whether AI spending continues to translate into real corporate revenue and profit growth will be make-or-break for the U.S. stock market’s next major upswing. But there’s a sharp divide of opinion on Wall Street. The majority of analysts expect U.S. stocks to enter a short-term consolidation phase after their sharp rally from March’s lows. Rising global bond yields, they warn, will dampen consumer spending and business investment, dragging down overall economic growth. Another key risk factor: energy price shocks linked to tensions with Iran, which could push inflation higher, lift fuel costs, and remain a top priority for central banks around the world. Looking at long-term market patterns, it’s rare for stocks to post strong year-over-year returns for multiple consecutive years. Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decisions research at SimCorp, cited data showing that since 1926, U.S. stocks have only notched annual returns of more than 15% for four straight years three times — making such streaks highly unusual. Brown also pointed out that after three consecutive years of annual returns exceeding 20%, the average return in the fourth year is just 3.9%, far below the historical average of 11.8%. She acknowledged that past trends don’t determine this year’s performance, and AI-related sectors still have the potential to lift the broader market. Still, if U.S. stocks deliver low double-digit growth this year, the odds of another market rise next year will drop further.